Quotes from Societe Generale:
- The island's HSBC manufacturing PMI declined for the fourth month in a row to 51.4 in November, the lowest in 15 months. Output, orders, prices and inventories all declined over the month. Meanwhile, export growth moderated up in November while import growth rebounded strongly after a fall. That said, exports probably caught up in November, as industrial production (IP) and export order numbers in previous months expanded strongly while export growth remained modest.
- In contrast, imports beat expectations again even though there was a drag from the plunge in oil prices. Along with a tighter labor market, which was also suggested by the improving employment sub-index in the PMI report, domestic demand was buoyant. However, given the weakness in external demand, industrial production likely softened slightly in November. Nevertheless, with positive base effects, y/y IP growth will still post a strong gain at around 9 pct.
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