The H4 chart demonstrates that the pair is still treating a rebound from 184.95 as part of a consolidation pattern from 195.86. Hence, we will be cautious on strong resistance at 195.86 and a reversal at the current level. Below 193.03, bias will be turned back to the downside for a test on 184.95 support. Nonetheless, decisive break of 195.86 will confirm uptrend resumption and target 200 psychological level next.
In the bigger picture, the uptrend from 116.83 is still in progress and would target 61.8% retracement of 251.09 to 116.83 at 199.80, which is close to 200 psychological level. Medium-term momentum is not too convincing with bearish divergence condition in the weekly MACD. We’d be cautious in medium term topping around 200 and bring a deep correction. Meanwhile, break of 174.86 will suggest that the trend has reversed earlier than we expect.
Support: 193.21, 192.37, 191.00
Resistance: 193.53, 194.58, 195.82
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