We are caught between a bullish and bearish scenario. We have shown the possible bearish count over the last couple of days and would like to recap on the bullish count as it is still alive. The failure of a breakout below support at 1.7103 has kept the bullish scenario alive. If this count proves correct, a new rally to the zone above 1.9023 should be seen. A break above minor resistance at 1.7945 will indicate that the bullish count is correct. That said we do hesitate a bit with regard to the upside potential. A spike to 1.9023 seems really far away and we are not sure that wave v will be able to regain the top at 1.9023. In the ideal Elliott Wave World wave v would be break to above 1.9023, but risk of the wave five failure seems to be higher than normal.
Only a direct break below 1.7410 and more importantly below 1.7103 will remove risk of one final rally higher.
Our stop at 1.6625 was hit. We will stand aside for now and wait for a better opportunity, with less risk.
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