Bulls managed to arrest a 2-day losing streak, closed with a $9 gain at Friday’s session. Finally, the metal fell back to the financial crisis level.
IMF data: German gold reserves reduced by 2.395 tons to 3381.120 tons in June 2015.
Kazakhstan gold reserves increased 2.248 tons to 205.667 tons in June. Russia’s gold reserves increased 24.139 tons in June, to the level of 1,275.087 tons.
SPDR gold holdings declined for the fourth consecutive trading day, so the cumulative holdings reduced 11.62 tons this week, showing a cumulative decline of 1.69%
German commercial banks: Still believe that gold will rise in the medium term. The obstacles to the gold market will be reduced due to the Fed’s first rate hike. Gold prices are expected to hit $1,300 an ounce by the end of 2016, but do not rule out down to $ 1,000 an ounce possible.
Merrill Lynch: still believe that gold prices are unlikely to rebound on the back of the Fed’s tightening cycle. Gold prices are expected to be below the critical psychological barrier of $ 1,000 an ounce in 2016.
Morgan Stanley said that despite the recent price drop, metal price is still higher than the marginal cost of production.
CFTC data shows that speculators preferred short positions on gold futures and options during the week ended July 21, for the first time.
Technical view: The yellow metal was trading at $1,096.00 during today’s Asian session compared to Thursday’s closing price of $1,098.80. The weekly trading pattern is framed between $1,085.00 and $1,119.00 on a closing basis. A close on either side will lead to more room to trade. In the weekly chart, the metal managed to hold the channel support trend line at $1,085.00 on a closing basis. The metal has been reaching lower highs and lower lows breaking below the large bearish head & shoulder pattern.
The weekly support is found at $1,085.00, $1,077.00, and $1,073.00. A weekly close below $1,085.00 opens gate $1,068.00, $1,045.00, and $1,005.00. In the monthly chart, strong support zone is seen between $1,045.00 and $1,032.00. The metal fell below the 14-year ascending trendline in the monthly chart.
Intraday: Intraday support is found at $1,093.00, $1,091.00, and $1,087.00. Resistance is seen at $1,102.00, $1,106.00, and $1,110.00. A daily close below $1,077.00 opens gates to $1,055.00 during this week. Intraday buying is available above $1,102.00 with a target at $1,105.00 and in the extreme case at $1,109.00. Selling is available below $1,086.00 with a target at $1,084.00, $1,082.00, $1,080.00, and $1,077.00. Panic is likely to trigger below $1,077.00. Use a rise to sell this week.
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