Global macro overview for 15/07/2015:
The overnight data release from China, world’s no. 2 economy, had beat experts’ expectations in all measurable fields. The main growth rate, measured by nations GDP, was reported at the level of 7% vs. 6.9% in second quarter this year, slightly higher than expected. The real GDP was also reported higher, 1.7% q/q (7% y/y) vs. 1.5%q/q/ (6.9%y/y) and even better than the previous quarterly reading of 1.4% q/q (7% y/y). Also, other numbers beat the expectations: the industrial output came out at 6.8% y/y vs. the forecast of 6%. The Fixed Asset Investment is 11.4% y/y better than expected 11.2% y/y. All this numbers show no real slowdown in the Chinese economy so far.
The Australian dollar is influenced by the data release from China, because of two facts: AUD is a commodity currency and China is Australian number 1 business partner. This is why the initial reaction to better-than-expected data was a small rally up on AUD/USD pair to the level of 0.7488. Currently, the market is consolidating, but the near-term bottom might have been found and further gains are anticipated. Any breakout above the level of 0.7496 will be a short-term bullish sign.
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