Global macro overview for 15/09/2015:
The UK inflation data will be released at 8:30am today and they should be closely watched for any signs of an increase. The main indicator, the consumer price index, is expected to rise slightly to the level of 0.2% m/m( 0.0% y/y) from the last month’s reading of -0.2% m/m (0.1% y/y). The core CPI should remain close to one percent at the level of 1.0% y/y, decreased slightly from 1.2% y/y last month. With this kind of numbers, the inflationary pressure will remain low and the BoE might wait a little longer before increasing its interest rates. Moreover, I am quite sure the BoE will not raise the rates before the Fed does it.
From the technical point of view, the market retraced almost 50% of the recent swing low, tested the golden trend line from the below and currently is trading within a tight consolidation zone. It is likely to be waiting for the Fed’s meeting minutes which are set for Thursday. The support is found at the level of 1.5329 and resistance is seen at the level of 1.5475.
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