The Greek factor drives the euro this week. BOJ monetary policy meeting minutes are due on Tuesday. The retail sales index y/y is expected to be published on Wednesday. Tokyo core CPI y/y and National core CPI y/y are due on Thursday. As Japanese retail sales have been disappointing for a while, we express the same view this time as well. The unemployment rate and national core CPI data are expected to be optimistic.
The cross rejected at 100Wsma again and erased most of its previous week’s gains. Last Monday, on May 18, the cross rejected at 200Dsma. By the end of the week, it closed below 200D & Sma and 20Dsma. This was the fourth time the cross rejected at the same levels. The parallel support is found at 133.48 and 133.00 strong support seen at 132.67. The weekly support is found at 132.66 20Wsma. Bull’s last hope lies at 131.15 50Dsma. Big distribution pattern and head and shoulder have been forming in the four-hour chart. In case the price closes below 133.00, we will conclude that the near and medium terms are capped. The cross favors selling on rise. The selling range is set between 134.75 and 135.15 sl 135.35.
Intraday: The cross has the nearest support found at 133.72, 133.46 and 133.10 are likely below this. Bulls’ last hope lies at 133.00 for intraday. In case the price takes out 133.00, bears will aim at 132.40 and 131.75. Intraday resistance is seen at 134.22 and 134.55. In the four-hour chart, lower high formation was painted after 2 weeks. The cross made a double top in the H1 and H4 charts. Bears have a selling opportunity below 133.70 for a small target at 133.46. Real selling is below 133.45 towards 133.00. The panic will be triggered below 133.00 towards 132.35. Bulls have a minor buying opportunity above 134.15 aiming at 134.40. While the cross is tradeing below 135.55, use every rise to sell is the best strategy.
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