Greek Prime Minister Tsipras decided the decision to hold a referendum on July 5. The Greek banks will be close until June 6. Transactions are restricted. These unexpected events dampen had a significant effect on the euro today. The euro dropped against the most majors. Greek officials said «Greek deposits are fully guaranteed and the Greek ATM will open at noon on Monday».
The euro is trading 1.8% lower at Monday's Asian session. As of now, the pair hit a low at 1.0954 temporary support is found at 1.0950. The pair opened with a 1.5% gap down. The trading weeks favours selling on rises with sl 1.1050 or 1.1085 daily closing basis. On the down side, the support is found at 1.0890 and 1.0820. In the daily chart, the higher low and higher will be erased if the pair fell below 1.0819. The pair made a double top between 1.1467 and 1.1437 with targets at 1.0800, 1.0550, and 1.0400. We forecast «In case bulls are unable to close above 1.1535, bears are likely to re-test 1.1200, 1.1100, and 1.1060 this week». The market met our expectations.
Weekly events: Today data on German prelim CPI Spanish flash CPI is due. German retail sales and unemployment change, Euro CPI y/y and unemployment rate are expected to be released on Tuesday. Wednesday is a day when Spanish, French, German and Italy manufacturing PMI is due. Draghi's speech is scheduled for Thursday and data on retail sales will close the week.
Intraday: Due to the opening gap down, traders didn't get a chance to sell. Fresh selling is advised only below 1.0950 towards 1.0920 and 1.0900. Resistance is seen at 1.1020, 1.1080, and 1.1150. The 20Wsma is seen at 1.1030. The momentum oscillators indicate that the level is oversold; a mild pullback towards the resistance zone is expected. Strong momentum will arise on the higher side in case of a breach above 1.1085.
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