The euro managed to hold above a monthly high as the greenback is trading below a 3-motnh low. The euro has been extending the bullish prints for 3 consecutive days as well. This is the second consecutive week when the pair is trading above 20Wsma. Soft data from the US has boosted the recent rally. The long-term picture still favors bears. The divergence between two central banks (ECB and FED) favors bears. The pair has been closing with losses on a weekly basis for five weeks. The nearest resistance is seen at 1.1480 and 1.1535. We expect book-profit action to take place before further rise. Support is found at 1.1300 100Dema and 1.1195 10Dsma. The weekly support is found at 1.1165 20Wsma. In case the pair manages to close above 1.1535, bulls can print at 1.1800 and 1.1965. It's still too early to expect 1.1800.
Intraday view: The nearest resistance is seen at 1.1460 100.0FE in the four-hour chart and 1.1480 161.8 FE in the daily chart. In the four-hour chart, the negative divergence has been developing. We have been recommending buying with mild caution. We expect booking to take place between 1.1500 and 1.1535. Small bullish trade is available today. Risky buying is seen above 1.1460 and safe above 1.1480 with small targets at 1.1500 and 1.1530. In the last case, we expect 1.1550 and 1.1580 but chances are remote. Another bullish leg is likely to be available if the price gets above 1.1535 on a weekly basis. In case of today's closure above 1.1535, we can conclude that another leg towards 1.1800+ is formed. For bears, intraday support is found at 1.1340 and 1.1330. Selling will emerge below these levels for 100 pips correction towards 1.1300, 1.1240, and even 1.1200. At yesterday's session, we expected this week's high to be placed between 1.1450/1.1475. The pair has made a high at 1.1445.
Trade: Selling below 1.1340/1.1330
with sl 1.1420 cmp 1.1404 target 1.1350/1.1340,1.1320, 1.1275, and 1.1250
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