USD/JPY is expected to trade with bullish bias. It is underpinned by a rebound in China’s stocks on Thursday, the reduced safe-haven appeal of the yen and the yen-funded carry trades as risk sentiment improves after Greece’s submission of new reform proposals that appear to be closer to the creditors’ demands on VAT and pensions. It raises hopes for positive outcome at Sunday’s summit of the European Union members in Brussels. USD/JPY is also supported by the higher US Treasury yields (10-year rose 11.1 bps to 2.317% Thursday) and the Bank of Japan’s ultra-loose monetary policy. But USD sentiment is dented by the more-than-expected 297,000 US jobless Claims for the week ended on July 4 (versus forecast 275,000). USD/JPY gains are also tempered by the positions adjustment ahead of the weekend.
The daily chart is mixed as MACD is bearish, five and 15-day moving averages are declining but stochastics is turning bullish near oversold levels.
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price holds above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 123.30 and the second target at 123.70. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 1121.60 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 121.20. The pivot point is at 1122.
Resistance levels: 123.30 123.70 124
Support levels: 121.60 121.20 121
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