USD/JPY is expected to consolidate with bullish bias. USD/JPY is underpinned by the positive dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 97.96 versus 97.66 early Friday) on a larger-than-expected 9.8% on-month increase in the US June housing starts (versus forecast +7.1%), while +0.3% US June CPI (matching forecast) bolstered expectations that the Federal Reserve will begin tightening its policy this year. USD/JPY is also supported by the Bank of Japan’s ultra-loose monetary policy, reduced safe-haven appeal of the yen as investor risk aversion recedes (VIX fear gauge eased 1.32% to 11.95; S&P 500 closed up 0.11% at 2,126.64 Friday) amid easing concerns about Greece and signs of stabilization in China stock markets. But USD sentiment is dented by the weaker-than-expected US July preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment index of 93.3 (versus forecast 95.5). USD/JPY upside is also limited by the profit-taking on short JPY positions and buy-yen orders from Japan’s exporters.
The daily chart is still positive-biased as the MACD and stochastics are bullish, although the latter one is at overbought levels. Five-day moving average is above 15-day moving average and is advancing.
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price holds above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 124.35 and the second target at 124.60. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 123.70 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 123.35. The pivot point is at 123.90.
Resistance levels: 124.35 124.60 124.90
Support levels: 123.70 123.35 123
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