USD/JPY is expected to consolidate with a bearish bias. USD/JPY is underpinned by the reduced safe-haven appeal of the yen and yen-funded carry trades as the global risk sentiment improves (VIX fear gauge eased 7.12% to 17.23; S&P 500 rose 1.07% to close at 2,068.59 overnight) on increasing hopes for a compromise between Greece’s new government and its international creditors. USD/JPY is also supported by the higher U.S. Treasury yields (10-year at 2.000% versus 1.948% late Monday) and the positive dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 94.73 versus 94.51 early Tuesday) on more-than-expected 5.028 million U.S. December job openings (versus forecast 4.99 million) and sell-yen orders from Japan’s importers; ultra-loose Bank of Japan’s monetary policy. But USD sentiment is dented by the surprise drop in U.S. NFIB index of small business optimism to 97.9 in January from 100.4 in December (versus forecast for rise to 101.0) and smaller-than-expected 0.1% rise in U.S. December wholesale inventories (versus forecast +0.3%) and drop in U.S. IBD/TIPP economic optimism index to 47.5 in February from 51.5 in January. USD/JPY gains are also tempered by the buy-yen orders from Japan’s exporters.
The daily chart is mixed as the MACD is bearish, but stochastics is rising from oversold levels.
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 122.70. A break of this target will move the pair further downward to 122.40. The pivot point stands at 123.40. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 123.85 and the second target at 0.9665.
Resistance levels: 123.85 124.15 123.75
Support levels: 122.70 122.40 122
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