The recent soft US data has been punishing the USDX and USD related pairs for 2 months. The index made a high at 100.39 corrected 7% from the highs on March 2015. The index made a low at 93.13 last Thursday. A new week is bagged with major events like FOMC meeting minutes. Today, the FOMC member Evans's speech is due. It can have an impact on the USDX. Major events start from Tuesday when data on housing starts and building permits are due. The March US building permits has been declining for 3 consecutive months. On Wednesday, FOMC meeting minutes are due for release. Unemployment claims and Philly Fed Manufacturing index fall on Thursday. We expect positive data on jobs and Philly Fed. The weekend closed with CPI and core CPI. Ahead of the FOMC minutes, the USDX and USD related pairs are trading near the strong support levels. In our Friday's article, we took an opportunity to analyze USD/CAD trading near 200Dsma & 200Dema.
The index has been trading at the lower level of 93.13 for 3 consecutive days. The index is likely to make a double bottom at 93.13. The level of 93.13 is the 161.8FE entire fall from the peak. In case the price closes below 93.13, the next support is seen at 91.50 and 90.50 200Dsma and 200Dema respectively. Resistance is seen at 94.60 and 95.35 100Dema and 100Dsma respectively. Technically, until the price closes below 100dema & sma, bearish views remain in play. Today, the index opened on a bullish note.
The recent USD correction against JPY, CAD, SGD, and CHF failed to protect the bullish view in the near term. Only USD/JPY has been sustaining in the structural bullish view. As we expected earlier, the price is moving higher. The real problem for bulls is found at 118.50 100Dema. The pair is likely to make a double bottom at 118.50 and 118.30. We initiated buying in case we see the pair around 119.00 last week. We recommended buying between 119.00 and 118.60 sl 118.50 closing basis or 118.30 intraday. The pair made a high at 119.93 and erased 3/4th intraday gains. Today, the pair managed to recover Friday's losses within the Asian session. Intraday resistance is seen at 119.85 50Dsma. We expect this week's closing with gains. Intraday and weekly support is found at 119.25 2Wsma. At the Asian session, the pair held the 20Wsma and was trading higher. Weekly resistance is seen at 120.50 and 120.85. In case the price closes above 120.85, we expect 122.00 on the higher side. We have been recommending the same target for a while but they were not reached yet.
Support: 119.25 118.50
Resistance: 120.50 120.80
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