The Dollar index bounced from the blue trend-line support and tested the upper channel boundary and the kijun-sen at 95. The impulsive downward move could be already completed but I cannot rule out a new low before the reversal starts. Bears need to be very cautious specially today as we have the announcement of the US unemployment rate and Non-Farm payrolls. This data could provide the market with a bullish reversal.
The weekly chart has 5 waves down completed exactly at the kijun-sen support level. We could see a back test of this support level after the first bounce but there is a mounting probability that the end of the downward correction from 100 has been already seen.
Green line = neckline resistance
Blue line = trend-line support
Orange lines= bearish channel
The Dollar index is making an attempt to exit the bearish orange channel. Above this channel, we can find the cloud resistance. The first bullish signal is likely to come once the price breaks the orange channel. The second bullish signal will come if the index breaks above the 4-hour cloud. Until then, the trend remains bearish and traders should better wait for today’s announcements.
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